Saturday, 8 January 2011
Friday, 7 January 2011
Is Maxwell The Greatest?
Chris Maxwell plays his fiftieth game for Wrexham tomorrow, and in doing so highlights a remarkable achievement.
On the statistical section of wrexhamfan.co.uk I've got a record of the most efficient goalkeepers in the club's history, sorted by how often they concede goals. In order to ensure the figures aren't corrupted by keepers who made just a handful of appearances, I set the cut-off point at fifty games, so Maxwell becomes eligible tomorrow, and goes straight to the top of the list!
In fact, in terms of the frequency of goals past him, he's comfortably the best goalie in Wrexham's history, a decent amount ahead of the only other man to have conceded goals at a rate fewer than one per game, Andy Dibble!
It's a terrific achievement, but statistics always need context; what do the figures really tell us?
Well, obviously Maxwell is playing at a lower level than any keeper since Wrexham entered the Football League in 1921, so what does that tell us? Well, it means that the table doesn't prove he's the best keeper in our history; Dai Davies, for example, is third on the list and played all his Wrexham career three divisions higher. Clearly he faced a better quality of opponent.
However, Maxwell has certainly been the most successful keeper we've ever had in the context of the level we're playing at. Okay, he should be facing poorer strikers, but by the same logic he ought to have worse defenders in front of him.
Of course, that's another point; this is a record which is shared by the whole defensive unit. Dean Saunders has consistently built sides that don't concede goals, and Maxwell has benefited from that. However, he shouldn't be painted as the fortunate beneficiary of a solid back four; the other keepers we've had at The Racecourse during Saunders' time here have worse ratios of goals per minute. As I've previously mentioned, Scott Shearer conceded at double the rate Maxwell has done this season. If you really want to take liberties with statistics (go on, indulge yourself-every TV commentator does!) then Maxwell hasn't let a goal in since November!
So massive credit goes to Maxwell. Where he lies in terms of talent compared to his predecessors is an open subject for debate, but one thing is certain. No Wrexham fans have ever watched a more successful keeper.
On the statistical section of wrexhamfan.co.uk I've got a record of the most efficient goalkeepers in the club's history, sorted by how often they concede goals. In order to ensure the figures aren't corrupted by keepers who made just a handful of appearances, I set the cut-off point at fifty games, so Maxwell becomes eligible tomorrow, and goes straight to the top of the list!
In fact, in terms of the frequency of goals past him, he's comfortably the best goalie in Wrexham's history, a decent amount ahead of the only other man to have conceded goals at a rate fewer than one per game, Andy Dibble!
It's a terrific achievement, but statistics always need context; what do the figures really tell us?
Well, obviously Maxwell is playing at a lower level than any keeper since Wrexham entered the Football League in 1921, so what does that tell us? Well, it means that the table doesn't prove he's the best keeper in our history; Dai Davies, for example, is third on the list and played all his Wrexham career three divisions higher. Clearly he faced a better quality of opponent.
However, Maxwell has certainly been the most successful keeper we've ever had in the context of the level we're playing at. Okay, he should be facing poorer strikers, but by the same logic he ought to have worse defenders in front of him.
Of course, that's another point; this is a record which is shared by the whole defensive unit. Dean Saunders has consistently built sides that don't concede goals, and Maxwell has benefited from that. However, he shouldn't be painted as the fortunate beneficiary of a solid back four; the other keepers we've had at The Racecourse during Saunders' time here have worse ratios of goals per minute. As I've previously mentioned, Scott Shearer conceded at double the rate Maxwell has done this season. If you really want to take liberties with statistics (go on, indulge yourself-every TV commentator does!) then Maxwell hasn't let a goal in since November!
So massive credit goes to Maxwell. Where he lies in terms of talent compared to his predecessors is an open subject for debate, but one thing is certain. No Wrexham fans have ever watched a more successful keeper.
Wednesday, 5 January 2011
Tuesday, 4 January 2011
Is Saunders The Mainz Man?
Raphael Honigstein's consistently fascinating Guardian column on the Bundesliga recently offered a pen picture of Mainz's intriguing coach, Thomas Tuchel. It got me mulling over what is required to succeed in football, and what it told us about our very own manager
At first glance there's little comparison between Tuchel and Dean Saunders. Their backgrounds appear completely different; a well-decorated international who spent his playing career at some of the top clubs in Europe against a modest player forced to retire at 24.
At first glance there's little comparison between Tuchel and Dean Saunders. Their backgrounds appear completely different; a well-decorated international who spent his playing career at some of the top clubs in Europe against a modest player forced to retire at 24.
Yet Tuchel's endearingly humble approach to earning his coaching spurs is more similar to Saunders' path to The Racecourse than you might think. Humility is, admittedly, not something Saunders has been regularly accused of, particularly in the first year or so of his time as Wrexham boss, but he also paid his dues, working under Graeme Souness and John Toshack, and certainly developed a constant system of play.
One possible difference, although I'd have to have a more intimate knowledge of Tuchel's apprenticeship to know for certain, is that Saunders has had to deviate from his theory. He arrived at Wrexham with a similar approach to Tuchel, valuing the technical abilities and superior physical attributes that youthful Premiership loans and cast-offs could offer. At least, that was the plan, but as they were raw talents, some of whom would not blossom, Saunders found that, like the kids he brought in, the idea didn't have legs in the long term.
Perhaps Tuchel hit that wall and had to adjust his plans. Maybe the fact that he's working with higher quality players means he never did. However, it was certainly a wall Saunders hit. To his credit, he learned from the disappointment and recovered from the poor fare his side subsequently put out for the closing couple of months of his initial season and the whole of the 2009-10 season.
One possible difference, although I'd have to have a more intimate knowledge of Tuchel's apprenticeship to know for certain, is that Saunders has had to deviate from his theory. He arrived at Wrexham with a similar approach to Tuchel, valuing the technical abilities and superior physical attributes that youthful Premiership loans and cast-offs could offer. At least, that was the plan, but as they were raw talents, some of whom would not blossom, Saunders found that, like the kids he brought in, the idea didn't have legs in the long term.
Perhaps Tuchel hit that wall and had to adjust his plans. Maybe the fact that he's working with higher quality players means he never did. However, it was certainly a wall Saunders hit. To his credit, he learned from the disappointment and recovered from the poor fare his side subsequently put out for the closing couple of months of his initial season and the whole of the 2009-10 season.
With hindsight, the foundations of Saunders' new philosophy were laid last season, although it wasn't really discernible at the time. The sound defensive foundations he laid were reassembled when last season's record-breaking defence was dispersed, but it was no longer based on such ferocious pressing. Wrexham certainly still work hard when they don't have the ball, but their defensive shape is the real key. When we lose the ball we drop into position superbly.
It's very hard to find the space to break a disciplined rearguard and the idea is that with three attack players still poised to capitalise when we get possession back, we are able to break with speed, Mainz style.
Of course, that's where the plan has broken down rather. Adrian Cieslweicz's first run in the team this season is surely an attempt to inject pace into the side, and we have been counter-attacking more effectively as a result. However, the Altrincham match showed that, although we're very hard to beat and are likely to take points off the teams at the top of the table, we also find it hard to cut loose against sides we would hope to thrash.
There are two possible solutions: either we'll find new thrust when Saunders pairs the pace of the returning Andy Mangan with Cieslewicz for the first time; or a new man will breathe life into the attack.
If neither of those possibilities occur, Saunders might find his fate at the end of the campaign is the same as that which awaits Tuchel: having made a big stride forward, he'll have fallen short of the tantalising dream which dangled just beyond his reach for the first half of the season.
Monday, 3 January 2011
Sunday, 2 January 2011
Spreading The Wealth
Last season we couldn't score for the life of us. Now we're hitting the net regularly enough: the Altrincham game was only the second away game this season in which we didn't score. The problem is that, while we're getting goals from midfield now-something which simply wasn't happening last season-we don't have a striker leading the way and getting into double figures.That fact is illustrated by the graphic to the left. It shows where each goal has come from this season. As you can see, we're getting plenty from the middle of the pitch. Indeed, the thirteen goals we've had from midfield so far is a vast improvement on last season, when we managed just five goals in the whole campaign from the centre of midfield.
Mind you, we might want to look at our effectiveness from set pieces. We got seven goals from our defenders last season, but this time round we only have two strikes from Marvin Andrews to show despite the fact that we've got more height to throw forward for dead ball plays now.
Still, the main issue is up front. We need someone to hit the net more regularly. If we can find a player capable of doing that, and keep the goals coming from midfield, our play-off hopes would rise dramatically.
Time To Savour A Rapidly-Maturing Cheese
Adrian Cieslewicz has only started our last two games this season yet he looks as likely a catalyst for a push into the play-offs as we've got. Whether that illustrates that you have to be patient as young players develops, or just shows how desperate we are for a bit of attacking spark is a moot point.There's no doubt that the pace of Cieslewicz got us off our seats against Kidderminster and Altrincham. He's always possessed that attribute, of course, but seems to be more able to utilise it effectively now.
A number of fans at the end of last season were sceptical as to whether he'd ever do that, but I feel that in thinking that they forgot that he was still very young. After all, he was just seventeen when he signed for us, although his lively form in pre-season friendlies after his arrival probably built up too much expectation too soon. As a result he was straight into the first team, and when he struggled to replicate that form he dropped out of contention and many began to draw negative conclusions about his potential.
That was unfair. Admittedly, he still might not fulfil his potential. Plenty of pacy youngsters are exposed when, once their formative years are passed, it becomes apparent that speed is all they've got. Perhaps that will be the case with Cieslewicz, but I hope not. So far this season, in his substitute appearances as well as his recent starts, he has shown that there's starting to be a bit more end product to his thrilling runs. For evidence, have a look at how well he took play from the defensive to attacking phases in my tactical video review of the Kidderminster match.
He showed signs of doing so in those pre-season matches the Summer before last; his danger lay not solely in his pace but in the way he and Marc Williams dove-tailed neatly, their movement creating space for each other. In those games Cieslewicz was used as a right winger, while Williams was a striker, but they have a history of combined successfully in other positions too; by some distance Cieslewicz's best performance of last season came when he and Williams were paired up front against Kidderminster.
As one might argue that his other outstanding performance for us came in the F.A. Trophy tie against Kidderminster last month (poor old Kiddy-he must have something against them!) when he and Williams were each given their first starts of the season, there seems to be a pattern forming. There's every chance, having seen how drained both Gareth Taylor and Andy Morrell looked yesterday, that a Williams and Cieslewicz will start up front against Bath, with Mathias Pogba the third man up front. Could it be that the Williams-Cieslewicz double act will give Saunders something to chew over before he dives into the transfer market?
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