Tuesday, 25 March 2008

Tortured Maths

I don't usually see much point in trying to predict runs of matches to see how a league table will end up; recent results at the bottom of League Two show why that's a mug's game! However, I'm so desperate to see us somehow dig ourselves out of this mess that I feel a need to work out the likely results the other sides will achieve, just to see if I really do believe we can make it, so here goes.

Assuming we beat our rivals in the big head-to-heads, as we surely have to in order to survive, I'd have thought these are the most probable outcomes:

MANSFIELD-hardly the most intimidating run-in. One serious promotion contender and a lot of off-form sides:
Notts Co (a) D
Wrexham (h) L
Barnet (h) D
Stockport (a) L
Macclesfield (a) D
Shrewsbury (h) W
Rotherham (h) D
Dagenham (a) L

Accrington (h) D
Wrexham (a) L
Mansfield (h) D
Bury (a) L
Chesterfield (h) L
Chester (a) W

NOTTS COUNTY-the nastiest looking run:
Mansfield (h) D
Bury (a) L
Rochdale (a) L
Accrington (h) D
Wrexham (a) L
Wycombe (h) L
Chesterfield (a) L

DAGENHAM-I can see them really struggling:
Chesterfield (h) L
Accrington (a) L
Rochdale (h) L
Rotherham (a) L
Darlington (a) L
Mansfield (h) W

So they'd line up as follows:
Macclesfield Town 46
Dagenham 45
Notts County 42
Mansfield Town 40

We'd have at least nine more points than we do now by virtue of beating all three of them, giving us forty-two points. So if we can do that we'd have a real chance of survival. I admit I've probably been a little optinistic in my predictions, but it does show that we can still do this.

Three points against Dagenham would have made me feel a lot more convinced by my argument though!

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